Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word...

This Just In: Kim Jong Il did NOT Apologize, and he "reserves the right to take further actions."

I, for one, am stunned. How can this BE? I mean, CHINA talked to him, right?

See below for details, if you want them. In the meantime, continue sleeping well knowing that Nancy Pelosi is just *dying* to get her hands on the funding for the Missile Defense System...

Chinese State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan was told during meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and other officials in Pyongyang last week that the North has no plans currently to carry out a second nuclear test, said Liu Jianchao.

"But if it faces pressure, North Korea reserves the right to take further actions," Liu said, citing Tang.

Despite the apparently conciliatory tone of the meeting, Liu said that Kim did not apologize for his regime's nuclear test, as some South Korean media had reported.

"These reports are certainly not accurate," Liu said. "We haven't heard any information that Kim Jong Il apologized for the test."

Monday, October 23, 2006

How to Nuke Seattle

Last week North Korea apologized for detonating a nuclear blast. They did this after a Chinese envoy visited them. Note that UN Sanctions made them declare war on the world, but a Chinse envoy "made" them apologize.

Today, not a week later, the Associated Press is reporting that China is pessimistic about Pyongyang actually stopping their testing. In other words "you can't put the genie back in the bottle."

If only Broadway did theater this well.

In spite of what your liberal press (Newsweek, NYT, etc.) tell you, a nuclear North Korea is a best-case scenario for our friends in China. The country that should be terrified is the USA. Unfortunately we're too busy watching TV to care.

If you accept that North Korea is a puppet of China - and if you don't, you're in for a really big surprise in about 2 years - consider this scenario:

For the next 18 months we don't hear much from North Korea. Perhaps another missile test here and there, followed by special envoys and apologies, but we really don't hear much.

Two years from now Kim Jong Il declares that North Korea is deploying 30 ICBM's. Maybe 20, maybe 50, but significantly more than 10.

Although no details are given about the missiles, there's a good guess that they have the range to reach the western and northern USA. Say, an arc drawn from Minneapolis down to San Diego. Maybe Phoenix, maybe Chicago, but probably not.

The world goes apoplectic, calls North Korea all sorts of bad names, etc.

Something triggers North Korea to launch 20 missiles. 3 at Japan, 2 at South Korea, and 15 at the USA. And by "something," I mean "that Rapscallion, Kim Jong Illinthehead finally snaps at the shadows he believes surround him..."

About 1/3 of the missiles fail in some way, but 15 of them launch. Nancy Pelosi hasn't allowed us to fund our Missile Defense much beyond where it is today, so nothing stops the hits on Oahu, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, etc. The missiles are rather inaccurate and the warheads are small, but they still detonate, leveling a square mile or two, lighting a lot of fires, and irradiating about a million Americans.

And the USA responds by... what? What, exactly, do we do?

We nuke Pyongyang. OK,

We nuke the launch sites, covering them with a few warheads.

We nuke... what else?

You see, there are three major problems that make this situation a worst-case for us.

One: We cannot simply drop 100 warheads on North Korea. There's that small issue of the country they share their largest border with: no, not South Korea... their largest border is actually with China. Do you believe China is going to just sit there while we drop 100 warheads next door? Would we stand there if someone nuked Mexico - even if it was "justified?" Probably not. China would allow us a few retaliations, but that's as far as their patience would stretch, I daresay - and their missiles can reach DC.

Two: There's also the issue of a rather significant country just to the east of North Korea. Japan. Japan is less than 1,000 miles off of the NK coast - DOWNWIND. Fallout from a couple of bombs would be bothersome but tolerable, particularly if Japan itself had been nuked. They'll want retaliation, even if it means they live in their basements for a week while the fallout from 7 or 8 warheads dusts their country. Not a great scenario, but tolerable if they are angry enough. But 80 or 100 warheads? Now we're talking about serious fallout, even given the distance. It would destroy too much.

Plus, Kamchatka and Vladivostok are also quite possibly going to be hit with fallout - nothing like nuking Russia in retaliation for an attack by North Korea.

Three: After Pyongyang and some nuclear sites, what targets do we have? North Korea doesn't have an infrastructure to destroy. Their people live in perpetual famine, without the aid of so much as flush toilets. What do we gain from nuking essentially empty mountains?

So there we are: five, ten, maybe fifteen cities badly damaged (I don't believe the North Korean nukes will be large enough to completely level any US city). Their warheads are probably lousy, so we'll get some fizzles - good in terms of blast (it's lessened) but really bad in terms of radiation (a fizzle is, by it's very nature, "dirty.") Think about the aftermath of Katrina AND 9/11. And then multiply it by 20 or 30. We'll lose tens - perhaps hundreds - of thousands of people through direct effects. Fallout will reach all the way to the East Coast.

We will have societal issues like looting, emergency health assistance, housing for refugees, etc. At the same time we will be economically devastated. This wouldn't cause a "hiccup." This would cause a complete gutting of the US Economy. We would crash, and crash big.

Think about it... do you think our Congress would "rise to the challenge?" Look at how they flubbed up Katrina. Now imagine five or ten Katrina's. Now imagine that the "storm doesn't pass." Instead, the area is irradiated and people are PANICKING and fleeing.

I'm pretty sure Consumer Confidence would ebb a bit. Just a bit.

And if Tokyo and Seoul have been hit, too? The global economy takes a nasty shock.

So what happens then?

Well, first off China will "invade" North Korea, overthrow the Kim regime, etc. They won't find Kim, of course - he died in the nuking of Pyongyang, with his leaders. Nothing like "disappearing" to keep the conspiracy theorists going.

But, of course, if Kim *were* to end up living in a lovely area of China, incognito, wanting for nothing... well, who'd know?

For at least four or five years the global economy continues to reel. At some point, however, things begin improving. Europe is untouched by this, presuming Iran stays calm (a BIG *if*, since a gutted USA could lead to massive issues in the Mideast). China is untouched. India is untouched. There are a lot of large economies that have access to resources, the means of production, and consumers to consume the output. They will recover first.

In other words, the Chinese economy would have "the inside track" on the post-war economic horizon. While the USA, South Korea and Japan struggle to rebuild, China comes out unscathed.

You want "means, motive, and alibi?" You got it. North Korea provides China with the means. Their quest for economic and political hegemony is more than motive enough. The cherry on top? Plausible deniability, that old Cold War Chestnut. An atomic attack from North Korea is deniable by China. "We didn't do it" will be legally true.

Tell that to Seattle.

China is not some benevolent nation on the other side of the ocean, struggling to maintain order. It's a puppet master who now has atomic weapons at the end of the strings.

Sleep well.

Monday, October 16, 2006

North Korea is already China's Puppet

No coy title for this one. I'm hoping that I might get a hit or two with the direct approach.

For the 100 million Americans out there who refuse to smell the coffee, allow me to make this simple for you: North Korea is already a puppet state of China. This isn't a threat of danger, it's a fate accompli.

Fifty some-odd years ago the Chinese sent approximately two million of their soldiers to fight for North Korea. About 1/4 of them - 500,000 or so - were killed. That's more than the United States lost in WWII, on all fronts combined - and we STILL remind the French "hey, you owe us."

How do you think China views that deal? Do you really believe that they pulled out of North Korea completely back in 1960 or thereabouts? Really? Who made them? Russia? The USA? Really?

China has controlled approximately 30% of the planet's population for the last 100 years. They might not have been able to project their power, but they are the one country that nobody has been able to conquer. Japan tried and failed (more on that later). Russia new better than to try. You simply can't conquer 1.3 Billion (in today's numbers) people.

So, instead, we pretend that they are "nice guys." We offer them Most Favored Nation trading status only minutes after Tianenmen Square. We declare them part of the "great nations" even while they actively oppress their people, threaten Taiwan with assimilation or annihilation, and harvest organs from prisoners.

Tell me, have you seen any native Chinese tell you "I'm the middle of three kids" recently? No?

Fascinating. Such self-control those Chinese have over their libidos. It must be their superior diet, or something like that. Perhaps their amazing Eastern Religions allow them to focus on the true meaning of life (fear of torture and death), instead of crass commercialism and propagation, like we Americans.

China hasn't been a "nice guy" in your lifetime. I don't care who you are, or how old you are, nobody living has ever seen a "nice" China. Not before Mao, and certainly not after.

China has an agenda, and controlling North Korea fits nicely into it.

China has some serious grudges, too, and controlling North Korea fits nicely into that one, too.

My next post will outline what's really going on. In the meantime, wake up, pull your head out, and realize that the world just changed dramatically - and NOT for the better...